His overall aim here is to get you to use multiple models in your thinking, and the plethora of models provided will be an aid to any person out there. Professor Page's MOOC Model Thinking has attracted over a half a million students who have learned how to use models to explain everything from why we cannot predict stock prices to why elephants don't explode. Available for shipping November 27, 2018. As you might suspect, geeking out over mental models is one of my favorite activities, so I was thrilled to have this conversation with Scott. You’re going to win relative to how someone else is, so it’s more like a game. #55] Scott Page, author and Professor of Complex Systems at the University of Michigan, explains the power of mental models. Just a little everyday-obervation: it’s funny how often people use right/ wrong in the context of abstraction (i.e. Hatchett Book Group. WHAT’S INSIDE My attention wandered far more than I thought it would. The world is a complex place. In today’s DataTalk podcast, we spoke with Dr. Scott Page about his latest book “The Model Thinker: What You Need to Know to Make Data Work for You.”Dr. 18.56 USD. Hosted by Pressable. If you want to better understand how we see the world, uncover creative solutions, or solve complex problems this episode is for you. Model Thinking | The official course blog for Scott E. Page's class on Coursera.org. He asserts that the models we each hold in our heads have the power to contribute to something special and truly meaningful if cultivated properly. See our Privacy Policy.Farnam Street participates in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising commissions by linking to Amazon. Get transcripts, early access, ad-free episodes, and so much more. Any errors and omissions in these notes are naturally entirely my own, and all credit for the content goes to Scott. He’s also an entrepreneur and a technical phenomenon, serving as CEO for a master project called Think:EXP. Brace yourself for an entirely new perspective.”—, “The clarity of Scott’s thinking has been awing me since our days together as doctoral students at Kellogg. Because the feedback loop is very strong (people joining increases the number of people joining which increases the number of people joining …) the model has a ‘cascading’ behaviour. …This book promotes a many-model thinking approach: the application of ensembles of models to make sense of complex phenomena. It describes dozens of models in straightforward language and explains how to apply them…. In a complex world, your ability to succeed is going to depend on you filling a niche that’s valuable, which as in Barabasi’s book, it could be connecting things, it could be pulling resources and ideas from different places, but it’s going to be filling a niche and that niche could take all sorts of different forms. According to her, the course helped her develop sharper questioning and thinking about framing problems, and then ways of solving them. Collective intelligence is where the whole is smarter than any one individual in it. Scott has 4 jobs listed on their profile. https://sites.lsa.umich.edu/scottepage/home/the-model-thinker We discuss the “hierarchy of wisdom,” the three ingredient recipe to succeeding in a complex world, the power of mental models when interpreting new information, and of course, whether ketchup belongs in the refrigerator or the cupboard. Scott E. Page is the John Seely Brown Distinguished University Professor of Complexity, Social Science, and Management at the University of Michigan, and the Williamson family Professor of … Using models to think more clearly might be the biggest reason … Scott’s research has focused primarily on the value of cognitive diversity in complex systems. In this accessible and pragmatic book, Page persuasively shows us how in these transition periods we can use the wisdom of crowds to improve our decision-making. It handles this many pieces of paper, print quality is this good, the toner cartridge is easy to change,” all the attributes. The Many-Model Thinker They went back and interrogated people in the crowd saying, “Why do you think this printer is not going to sell? The nice thing that comes out of that is this calming sensation. Some lecture notes/ scribble on Model Thinking by Scott E. Page. Scott E. Page is one of my favorite writers. You yourself are not going to create world peace. The core idea is that many-model thinking produces wisdom through a diverse ensemble of logical frames. I think you can’t make a difference in the world, you can’t go out there and do good, you can’t take this knowledge and this wisdom and make the world a better place unless you’ve acquired a set of useful tools, not only individually, but also they’ve got to be collectively useful. Since that time, more than a half a million people have taken the course. John Seely Brown Distinguished University Professor of Complexity, Social Science, and Management at the University of Michigan, and the Williamson family Professor of Business Administration, professor of management and organizations, Stephen M. Ross School of Business; professor of political science, professor of complex systems, and professor of economics, LSA. When they used a crowd, the crowd was like, no, it’s going to sell 200,000 units. ', 'For each individual among the many has a share of excellence and practical wisdom, and when they meet together, just as they become in a manner one man, who has many feet, and hands, and senses, so too with regard to their character and thought. Beautifully written, this book teaches us how to stay logical, coherent and effective at work and at life more broadly–amidst a world awash in ever more data, distraction and complexity.”—, “Page explains the value of applying several models to a single problem, and then provides a conceptual toolkit for doing so. Page was inducted into the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2011. Scott E. Page. Professor Page certainly introduces some interesting concepts in The Model Thinker. Your brain just isn’t going to be big enough. You can think of it that in a predictive context, this could be the wisdom of crowds sort of thing where people guessing the weight of a steer, the crowd’s guess is going to be better than the average guess of the person in it. Sep 1, 2017 - [This post is part of a series dedicated to the free online Model Thinking course. PRE-ORDER NOW AVAILABLE. His book is a labor of love.”—, “With the exception of physics, science–and particularly the social sciences–currently resides in a liminal period characterized by hints of universal principles and the tantalizing possibility of robust prediction. https://www.amazon.com/Model-Thinker-What-Need-Know/dp/0465094627 The various models accentuate different ……. It’s based in Los Angles and described by Scott as “a live immersive […] Models help us to understand, explain, predict, and act. This is a book about models. A huge difference. 1. Professor Scott Page is teaching a class on "Model Thinking" starting January 2012. http://www.modelthinker-class.org/ Hi, my name is Scott Page, I'm a professor of complex system, political science and economics at the University of Michigan. We're Syrus Partners. To make sense of our complex world, scientists use models and do so in novel inventive ways. Book details Scott E. Page The Model Thinker: What You Need to Know to Make Data Work for You. 20 quotes from Scott E. Page: 'diverse teams make better mousetraps. Needless to say, these lecture notes are by no means a substitute for his awesome course. A great basketball player isn’t someone of great ability, it’s someone who loves practicing basketball. Lecture Intro, Part 2: “Intelligent Citizens of the World”: “George Box: ‘essentially all models are wrong, but some are useful'” |=: Agree! To read excerpt and to purchase, CLICK HERE. If you don’t get a job, if you don’t get a scholarship, if you don’t get into grad school, it’s not because somebody was better than you. ABSTRACT. The book summarizes and extends the material covered in the online course and promotes a "many-model thinking" [clarification needed] approach to confronting complex problems. The reason you want diverse people in the room is because different people bring different basic assumptions about how the world works, they construct different mental models of how the world works, and they’re going to see different parts of a problem. You’ve really got to enjoy the practice of the thing you’re doing. The various models accentuate different ……READ MORE, “This book offers a remarkably comprehensive and insightful introduction to mathematical models in the social sciences, written by one who is a master of the field and a brilliant teacher.”—, “An original and thought-provoking book, and a challenging one for a one-model thinker like myself. Scott Page: Becoming a Model Thinker [The Knowledge Project Ep. The linear model said, this printer is going to sell, let’s say 400,000 units. The twist is that the ‘crowd’ is not made of individuals but of well-chosen models each of which offers a different window on the world.”—, approach: the application of ensembles of models to make sense of complex phenomena. Awards. If you want to better understand how we see the world, uncover creative solutions, or solve complex problems this episode is for you. 448 pages; ISBN-10: 0465094627; ISBN-13: 978-0465094622. They do so by simplifying reality or by constructing artificial analogs. To the contrary, it means that maybe you should be one of those people who goes deep. In 2018, Page published The Model Thinker with Basic Books. My niece, who is an economics undergraduate student, took the Model Thinking course. Scott Page, author and Professor of Complex Systems at the University of Michigan, explains the power of mental models. The first word out of the person’s mouth was “butt-ugly.” “That is a butt-ugly printer.” There was no “butt-ugly” variable in the linear regression because that’s a design feature. He is also the author of five books, including The Model Thinker, The Difference, and The Diversity Bonus. A professor of complex systems, political science, and economics at the University of Michigan, he is the author of The Difference, Complex Adaptive Systems, and Diversity and Complexity.He also gave a wonderful on-line course on model thinking… You yourself are not going to solve the obesity epidemic. Scott E Page introduces the Granovetter model, where we have people who care about the size of movements, and movements with some of these people as members. The core idea is that many-model thinking produces wisdom through a diverse ensemble of logical frames. \Model Thinking" by Scott E. Page, Professor of Complex Systems, Political Science, and Economics at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. That said, I found it rather difficult to get through. View Scott Page’s profile on LinkedIn, the world’s largest professional community. I think that the challenge is to become a more nimble thinker, is to be able to move across these models. Here are a few highlights from our discussion: I think models force you to get the logic right. We buy amazing businesses. We see political uprisings, market crashes, and a never ending array of social trends. They force you to say what really matters here in terms of driving people’s behaviors or firms’ behaviors — how do those behaviors interact, how do they aggregate, and then how should people respond to that? But collections of people by having different ensembles of models, creating a larger ensemble of models actually have a hope of addressing these problems. And I'd like to welcome you to a new version of Model Thinking. It’s strategic and there’s no best thing you can do unless you happen to know where the other person was. MANY MODEL THINKING. While we were hoping to present a review much earlier during the year, due to various reasons and also perhaps due to the wealth of information presented in the book, it has taken us a while to develop this review. Scott E. Page University of Michigan - Model Thinking English | MP4 | H264 191 kbps 10 fps | 960x540 | AAC 128 kbps 44 KHz | 1,79 GB Genre: elearning We live in a complex world with diverse people, firms, and governments whose behaviors aggregate to produce novel, unexpected phenomena. No, it just happens to be that they were positioned better than you and that’s fine. But as anyone who has ever opened up a spreadsheet packed with seemingly infinite lines of data knows, numbers aren’t enough: we need to know how to make those numbers talk. “Model Thinker” by Page represents a single volume encompassing many facets of Complexity, Complex Adaptive Systems, and more. It’s just going to happen. Outwardly known to the universe as the saxophonist/guitarist for Pink Floyd, Supertramp, and Toto, Scott Page is so much more than a musician and performer. In The Model Thinker, social scientist Scott E. Page shows us the mathematical, statistical,... (展开全部) From the stock market to genomics laboratories, census figures to marketing email blasts, we are awash with data. A great musician is someone, yeah, who’s got some ability there, but they love practicing music. You yourself are not going to solve climate issues. Listen and Learn with The Knowledge Project on iTunes | Stitcher | Spotify | Android | Google Play. One of the nice things that both those models tell us is that there’s no best answer. But at the same time, if you can’t, if that’s just not your style, that doesn’t mean there’s no place for you in the modern economy. Oct 26, 2016 - Scott Page "Model Thinking: One to Many and Many to One" March 14, 2015 170 Denison Ann Arbor, Michigan Due to massive participation this course has been repeated several times. Model Thinking was the first MOOC offered by the University of Michigan, in 2012. See all other posts related to this course here.] My guest today is Scott Page (@Scott_E_Page,) Professor of Complex Systems, Political Science, and Economics at the University of Michigan. Learn more or sign up now: 2021 Farnam Street Media Inc. All Rights Reserved. University of Michigan Center for the Study of Complex Systems 318 West Hall Ann Arbor, MI 48106, USA. By Page represents a single volume encompassing many facets of Complexity, Complex Adaptive Systems, and all for! Participation this course has been repeated several times ’ ve really got to enjoy the practice the. 1, 2017 - [ this post is part of a series to. Models and do so by simplifying reality or by constructing artificial analogs that out. 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